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For all we know today. and for all we can learn from history. the convergence of national energy intensity levels at lower and lower global values should continue—as long as economic openness allows global fuel trade. the exchange of technical knowledge and the standardisation of products to continue. Likewise. fuel supplies under these conditions should continue to specialise. a process encouraged by the same factors of trade. universal adaptation of energy technologies. and standardisation of end-use. Continued specialisation means continued enhancements of the efficiency of energy production as well as energy use. Putting numbers on these trends leads us to believe that per capita growth in energy consumption from 2010–۲۰۳۰ should not be materially different from the period 1970–۱۹۹۰. which was characterised by higher population and lower economic growth.
