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The North Sea oil industry is entering its final decade of production. according to new academic research that rejects Alex Salmond’s claims during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign of an impending second boom.
An Edinburgh University study of output from offshore fields estimated that only around 10 per cent of the UK`s original recoverable oil and gas remains untapped.
It also concluded that fracking will be barely economically feasible in the UK. especially in Scotland. because of a lack of sites with suitable geology. The researchers warned that the UK will soon have to import all the oil and gas it needs.
Official figures published last week found that oil production increased by 2.9 per cent last year following a recovery in the price. However. capital expenditure dropped by around 20 per cent and it has emerged there were 60000 job losses in the industry last year. 20000 more than expected.
The Scottish Government is expected to set out its view on fracking shortly after imposing a moratorium on the controversial method of extracting gas in January 2015.
Alex Salmond predicted a second oil boom before the 2014 independence referendum
The study started with a quote from Mr. Salmond. the former First Minister. who predicted in March 2013 that: “There can be little doubt that Scotland is moving into a second oil boom.“
But Professor Roy Thompson. of the University of Edinburgh`s School of GeoSciences. who led the study. said this was not “tenable“ and noted that N56 had presented “no geotechnical evidence. from either drilling or production tests.“
He said: “The UK urgently needs a bold energy transition plan. instead of trusting to dwindling fossil fuel reserves and possible fracking.
`We must act now and drive the necessary shift to a clean economy with integration between energy systems. There needs to be greater emphasis on renewables. energy storage and improved insulation and energy efficiencies.`
The study. published by the Edinburgh Geological Society. took into account the long-term downward trends of oil and gas field size and lifespan. alongside the break-even costs for fracking.
Analysis of hydrocarbon reserves shows that discoveries have consistently lagged behind output since the point of peak oil recovery in the late 1990s. The research predicted that both oil and gas reserves will run out within a decade.
Alexander Burnett. the Scottish Tories’ energy spokesman. said: “If this turns out to be the case. it will be devastating for the north east economy. It’s now more essential than ever that both the Scottish and UK governments work together to maximise what’s left in the North Sea.
“But what cannot be ignored in the wake of this report is how the SNP used North Sea oil to sell a lie to the people of Scotland.“
A Scottish Government spokesman said the offshore oil and gas industry “has a bright future. and. with the right regulatory and fiscal environment. the basin has up to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent remaining – and this year has seen one of the biggest new discoveries of untapped oil in recent times.“
Deirdre Michie. chief executive of industry body Oil &. Gas UK. said: “There are up to 20 billion barrels of oil and gas resources still to be recovered on the UK Continental Shelf. based on production forecasts provided by the Oil and Gas Authority. Production has increased over the last two years and we expect that to continue to rise.“
