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Analysts see prices climbing higher in the middle of the year as stronger emerging-market demand and the OPEC+ cuts trim global inventories. Saudi Arabia surprised the market in early December with a deeper supply cut. which. along with signs of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade conflict that may boost demand. lead some prominent analysts to revise their forecasts higher.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its estimate for Brent crude to $63 a barrel from $60. according to a note from analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie. This points to a tighter inventory path than we previously expected. especially through first-half of 2020.
West Texas Intermediate will average $58.50 a barrel in 2020. according to the median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg since the OPEC+ meeting in early December. That compares to the current level of around $60 and the average so far in 2019 of $56.95. Brent is forecast to average $64.25 a barrel.
The forward curve is in backwardation. with spot prices for WTI about $4 a barrel and Brent about $5.25 a barrel higher than December 2020 contracts. That premium for near-term delivery comes as producers sell forward contracts to hedge their output for the next couple of years and as inventories are seen as likely to decline.
