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The rapid growth of renewable energy utilization and the immense potential for future use dictates a need to seriously consider the reliability of supply that can be obtained in addition to the associated cost benefits that can be achieved. Techniques have been developed to utilize site specific relevant atmospheric data. to model renewable energy conversion. and to conduct overall reliability cost evaluation of renewable energy utilization in small isolated systems. The dependence of renewable energy sources on a large number of random variables necessitates the utilization of probabilistic techniques for realistic cost adequacy studies. The existing deterministic criteria used in SIPS can be embedded in a probabilistic approach using system well-being analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation approach has been utilized to incorporate the numerous random variables and their interactions. The developed evaluation model can be used to conduct a wide range of system cost and reliability studies in order to analyze the actual benefits that can be obtained. The concepts presented can be applied to analyze the effects of various factors that influence the utilization of renewable energy in electric power systems and use the results as valuable inputs to system planning.
