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Japan expects non-fossil fuel power supply sources to account for roughly 60 per cent of the country’s energy mix in fiscal 2030-31 (April-March) under a draft Strategic Energy Plan released on Wednesday – more than double the 24 per cent share in 2019-20.
The country aims to match its 46 per cent greenhouse gas emissions or GHG reduction target by the end of this decade, according to S&P Global Platts.
Japan’s LNG share in the energy mix is set to be around 20 per cent, coal 19 per cent and oil two per cent in FY 2030-31 under an outlook in the Strategic Energy Plan, compared with 37 per cent for LNG, 32 per cent coal and seven per cent oil in FY 2019-20, according to the draft.
The draft of the Strategic Energy Plan, the country’s principle energy policy, showed a significant shift in Japan’s energy policy focused on decarbonising the energy sector, which accounts for 80 per cent of the country’s GHG emissions, in its efforts toward 2050 carbon neutrality.
The latest Strategic Energy Plan outlines Japan’s intention to take a series of supply and demand policy measures, as well as supporting technological innovation, to accelerate its move to curb GHG emissions, while keeping its tight grip to ensure stable energy supply during the transition period.
The FY 2030-31 outlook for renewable energy supply is being described as one path to achieve Japan’s ambitious 46 per cent GHG reduction target with careful policy handling at a time when the country is already aware of the difficulty in securing suitable locations for renewables.
Despite uncertainty over the actual outcome for the FY 2030-31 energy mix, the latest outlook would inevitably lead Japanese companies to review their fossil fuels strategy because of the country’s clear direction toward decarbonisation.
The draft, which was presented during the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s strategic policy committee at its advisory committee for natural resources and energy, remains subject to scrutiny, including a month-long public comment process, before being approved by the cabinet.
The new Strategic Energy Plan is being targeted to be formulated before Japan submits its Nationally Determined Contributions ahead of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties in Glasgow over Oct. 31-Nov. 12.
Under the draft, Japan expects renewable energy to account for 36-38 per cent of the country’s energy mix for power generation in FY 2030-31 – with the one per cent introduction of hydrogen/ammonia and 20-22 per cent of nuclear power – totaling 57-61 per cent of the non-fossil fuel power supply.
The country also expects the LNG portion to be around 20 per cent in its 2030-31 energy mix, with coal accounting for 19 per cent and oil for two per cent, which gives a total of 41 per cent for fossil fuels.
Together with 62 million kl (390 million barrels) of oil equivalent of energy conservation against its business-as-usual scenario, Japan aims to achieve its 46 per cent cut in GHG by FY 2030-31 from the FY 2013-14 level.
“This is based on the new FY 2030-31 reduction target, which represents an outlook of the energy supply and demand,” Mitsuhiro Nishida, METI’s director of energy strategy office, told a press briefing.
