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Despite the fact that U.S. crude oil production has recently hit the highest level since the pandemic low of below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2022, the growth rate has markedly slowed this year as the shale patch struggles, labor shortages, supply chain delays, and the high cost of supplies while producers focus on returns instead of drilling. U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September, the latest month with comprehensive data published by the EIA in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report last week. Between January and September, daily U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.733 million bpd, and 11.7 million bpd is the administration’s current projection for average U.S. crude oil production for this year.
Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump when American oil production in 2018 and 2019 soared by 1 million bpd—and even more—per year.
Those days of surging growth rates may be gone forever as producers continue to prioritize payouts over drilling, while cost inflation and supply chain issues hold back even those who are willing to boost output.
The September production was much higher than the 9.7 million bpd seen in May 2020, when American producers curtailed output after global and U.S. oil demand plunged at the beginning of the pandemic.
Since then, output has grown, but not at the same pace as in 2014 or 2018-2019.
