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Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan to develop electricity export capacity, even as Astana faces challenges in securing the power needed to fuel domestic economic growth.
The Kazakh Ministry of Energy has published for public comment a draft agreement on its strategic green-energy partnership with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. The agreement would put some flesh on the bones of a memorandum of intent the three countries signed in May.
“Emphasizing the importance of green and clean energy in global action to combat climate change, the Parties encourage mutual cooperation in the areas of renewable energy, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and green ammonia to improve energy system security and the stability of supply,” the draft states.
The draft goes on to commit Kazakhstan to “jointly implement new energy infrastructure initiatives that will contribute to the diversification of energy supplies and transit routes in Europe, Central Asia and the Caspian region.” It also declares an intention to achieve “rapid, deep and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.” The parties likewise express interest in facilitating “the interconnection of the energy systems of Central Asia and Azerbaijan for the purpose of sustainable export of green energy and broad strategic energy expansion.”
The trilateral initiative’s main market for green energy appears to be the European Union, which has contended with energy shortages and high costs, due to the disruption caused by the Kremlin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine and the resulting imposition of sanctions on Russia
As outlined in the memorandum of intent signed in May, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seek to lay a high-voltage power transmission line on the Caspian seabed to facilitate Westward-bound electricity exports. Neither July’s draft agreement nor the May memo provide insight into key details, including investment costs, specific infrastructure projects and construction timelines.
Climate and geographic conditions in Kazakhstan, with its vast windswept steppes, create favorable conditions for the development of wind-power plants. According to the Ministry of Energy, the energy potential of wind energy in the country is at least 920 billion kWh per year.
Kazakhstan is actively developing its green energy potential. Today, renewable energy sources account for only about 6 percent of total power generation in Kazakhstan, while coal-fired production accounts for about 80 percent. Under an ambitious government plan, however, the green-energy share of power production is set to rise to 15 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050.
If the government keeps to those targets, some experts question where all the power production will come from to meet export ambitions and growing domestic needs. A Russian media outlet cited Kazakh energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov as saying Kazakhstan will face an electricity deficit of about 6 Gigawatts by 2030.
The wild card in Kazakhstan’s power-generation deck is atomic energy. In June, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced an intention to hold a nationwide referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, a country that served as the Kremlin’s main atomic proving ground during the Soviet era and has the environmental scars to prove it.
A nuclear plant could provide for domestic needs, leaving production from wind and hydro sources for export. Despite the legacy of atomic-inflicted harm on Kazakhstan’s environment, polls indicate that slightly more Kazakh citizens support the construction of a nuclear facility than oppose it. But attitudes could shift depending on which entity might be tapped to build a plant. Some local observers believe Rosatom, the Russian state-controlled entity, has an inside track on securing the contract, in the event the Kazakh government proceeds with plant plans. But given the checkered history of Soviet/Russian nuclear energy, a Russian design may raise the level of popular opposition to plant construction more than would a French-, South Korean- or even Chinese-built facility. No date has yet been set for the referendum.
