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Russia remained the largest crude supplier to India in November, accounting for 38% of India’s total crude oil imports. However, imports from the country registered a marginal decline of 4% to 1.60 million barrels per day, against 1.67 million barrels per day in October, data from Vortexa showed.
The country imported 4.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in November, largely unchanged from last month, with Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and United States, being the top five suppliers.
While the share of crude oil sourced from Iraq and Saudi Arabia fell in November, the share of crude imports from the US increased. Imports from Iraq declined by 20% on month at 699,029 barrels per day in November, as per the data. Imports from Saudi Arabia also fell by 8% to 568,236 barrels per day last month, from 614,598 barrels per day in October.
“Iraq’s share of Indian imports fell to 17% this month, down from 20% last month. India’s import share from the rest of the top 5 suppliers remained relatively stable, with around 1% change month-on-month,” said Xavier Tang, market analyst at Vortexa.
“India has been maximising its imports of Russian crude, as delivered Russian crude prices are still cheaper than most Middle Eastern grades,” Tang noted. “If Middle Eastern producers reduce their prices to stay competitive, Indian refiners could adjust their imports in favour of Middle Eastern crude.”
India’s crude imports are also dependent on the country’s domestic oil demand and export margins.
While the domestic demand is seasonally the strongest in the fourth quarter, and slows thereafter, clean product export margins outlook for Indian refiners is leaning towards more bearishness, amidst well-supplied Asian and European markets, according to Tang. “This may pose downside risks to India’s crude imports in the months ahead,” he said.
Meanwhile, the country’s crude imports from the US is likely to remain unaffected under the new administration, analysts say. US domestic production is projected to increase next year, as part of the new drilled and completed wells coming online.
“The US incoming president, Donald Trump, has announced that he intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. This would greatly increase the cost of Canadian heavy crudes, which are transported via pipeline into the US, of which, some are exported to India. With the new import tariffs, Canadian heavy crude will almost be economically unattractive to Indian refiners, as such, we could expect to see lower exports of these crudes from the US Gulf to India,” said Tang. “The mainstream US crude will likely remain unaffected, and their exports to India will still be driven by economics.”
While Trump has announced that he plans to expedite drilling permits on federal land, analysts at Vortexa believe that this would have limited impact on US crude production in the near-term.
According to the data, India’s private refiners bought 1.57 million barrels of crude oil per day in November, while public downstream companies imported 2.65 million barrels of crude oil accounting for 63% of the total imports.
The government is now expecting a term deal between Indian refiners and Russia for supplies of crude oil to conclude by next year. “They (Indian refiners) were talking jointly. I do not have an update as now everything has been overtaken by this change in crude oil prices. The discussion (with Russia) is ongoing,” a government official had earlier told reporters.
The country’s dependency on import of crude oil during April to October of the current fiscal rose to 88.1%, up from 87.6% in the corresponding period of FY24, amid rising demand and stagnant domestic production, as per data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
Upstream companies produced 16.7 million tonnes of crude oil during the period, down from 17.3 million tonnes in the same period last fiscal. Despite the government’s efforts to boost production and reduce dependency on imports, the production has remained stagnant over the last ten years. But now, as the country expects an increase in imports to meet the rising consumption, the domestic production, which has remained muted so far, is also expected to grow.
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) expects to ramp up oil and gas production from its KG-98/2 field by the end of this fiscal year. Presently, the field produces 25,000 barrels per day of oil and ONGC expects it to ramp up to 45,000 bpd by end of FY25. KG gas production is likely to reach 10 mmscmd by FY25 end, from the current ~2 mmscmd. The company has guided for oil & gas production of 44.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent in FY26 and 46.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent and FY27, respectively.
