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China’s solar sector is set to break records in the coming years . When installed capacity crosses the 500 gigawatts (GW) mark by the end of 2023, it will have taken 13 years to reach that milestone. That total, however, will be doubled to 1 terawatt (TW) in just three additional years. Rystad Energy modeling shows total installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in China will cross the 1,000 GW mark by the end of 2026.
New capacity in 2023 is expected to top 150 GW, almost doubling the 87 GW installed in 2022. Our projections show that the significant acceleration is not going to slow anytime soon. About 165 GW is expected to be added in 2024 and 170 GW in 2025. This growth will see China’s cumulative solar PV capacity reach over 700 GW by 2024 and increase to close to 900 GW by the end of 2025, before topping 1 TW in 2026.
Today, China’s 500 GW represents approximately 40% of global capacity, with the US in second place, accounting for about 12% with 145 GW. Installations in the US are also expected to grow, helped by the incentives offered through the Inflation Reduction Act, but total capacity will be about 209 GW in 2026, or around 11% of the global total.
According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), 134.9 billion CNY (~$15.8 billion) has been invested in solar PV construction during the first half of 2023. This is 3.4 times the investment put into thermal power during the same period and the highest among all power generation sources. As China continues to invest in renewable energy, proactive measures to address the challenges of solar intermittency have been taken by encouraging new utility-scale renewable projects to build associated storage. Pumped hydro, for example, is developing fast in China to meet seasonal changes in energy demand. By June 2023, China had 49 GW of pumped hydro, which is expected to reach 64 GW by 2025 and over 120 GW by 2030.
China’s national program to build out solar capacity, launched in June 2021, has led to a significant boost in large-scale projects. Although most distributed PV systems are installed on rooftops, not all of them are used for residential purposes. Around two-thirds of the distributed PV capacity in China is utilized by the commercial and industrial sectors and these projects can vary from tens to more than 100 MW.
