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Following months of stalled negotiations, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process is moving again. Despite the newfound optimism that a deal is close, both sides have given no indication of how they intend to settle major differences.
Following a brief meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan instructed their respective foreign ministers to fast-track negotiations on an “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations.”
The most recent round of discussions focused on the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border; both countries still control territories claimed by the other. Despite continuing disagreement on border delimitation, along with the apparent suspension of talks on the opening of road and rail links, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in Kazan that up 90 percent of the terms of a peace agreement have been finalized. He urged Azerbaijan to sign the peace agreement “as is,” and work out the outstanding details at a later date.
Aliyev up to this point has been reluctant to leave any issue for future negotiations, in particular a demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijani forces reconquered in 2023. But the Azerbaijani leader may have changed his mind, as following his talks with Pashinyan in Kazan, he assented to the two countries’ foreign ministers working to finalize the text of the agreement.
“We are very close to reaching a final agreement, and it is crucial that we act decisively,” Pashinyan said. He also addressed Azerbaijan’s concerns about Armenia’s constitutional stance on territorial integrity, citing a recent Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed Armenia holds no territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
The talks in Kazan marked the second high-level meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in October, following an exchange at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, Russia.
Aiming to reassert influence that it has lost during the past year over the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, Russia at the CIS gathering pushed to mediate the peace process under the auspices of the “3+3” platform, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Armenia flatly rejected the new Russian offer. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, addressing the country’s parliament, stated that Armenia sees no need for a third-party platform to facilitate peace.
“The 3+3 proposal is not under consideration,” Mirzoyan said. “Our primary focus remains on direct negotiations with Azerbaijan to resolve border and peace issues independently.”
Moscow has suggested that the peace treaty should build on agreements it brokered in 2021 and 2022, including opening a contentious transit route called the “Zangezur Corridor.” This route would connect Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenia, with Russia acting as a security guarantor. Armenia opposes foreign control over the corridor, favoring instead Armenian customs enforcement. While Moscow and Baku are in sync regarding the corridor, Armenia relies on Iranian and Western support against it.
