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On December 1, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR, started supplying natural gas to Slovakia’s Slovenský plynárenský priemysel (SPP), the country’s largest state-owned energy operator. This comes just a month after SPP signed a short-term pilot contract to buy natural gas from Azerbaijan as it prepares for a possible halt to Russian supplies via Ukraine.
Last year, Ukraine signaled it has no intention to renew a five-year pipeline transit agreement to supply natural gas to EU countries when it expires on December 31, 2024, while EU energy chief Kadri Simson indicated that the EU executive has “no interest” in pushing to revive the agreement.
The EU has warned member countries to prepare for a world without Russian gas, with Ukraine gas amounting to 5% of total EU gas imports. Aura Sabadus, a senior analyst at the ICIS market intelligence firm, told Politico that Austria, Hungary and Slovakia are likely to be the hardest hit when the imports are cut off. Recently, Russia said it’s willing to continue supplying gas to Europe via Ukraine if Kyiv and the involved European countries can come to an agreement.
“Of course, in my opinion, the European countries that currently receive gas through this corridor are interested in continuing such cooperation,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is in charge of Russia’s energy policy, told reporters
“We are ready to supply (gas), but not much depends on us, so probably this should be negotiated directly between the users and the country through which the transit is provided,” he added.
Meanwhile, Turkey has said it is prepared to significantly increase natural gas exports to the European Union, desperate to further wean itself off Russian gas, but it won’t be easy or cheap: In order to do that, the most likely route is to re-export Azeri natural gas from Turkey. That, in turn, would require Turkey to take in more Russian gas to make up for the shortfall. Ankara is keen to play the role of savior and boost its leverage with respect to Brussels; but it wants some demand guarantees before it starts spending on the necessary infrastructure.
