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In its Annual Energy Outlook 2023 published on Thursday, the Energy Information Administration predicted that high international demand for petroleum products will lead to continued growth in U.S. production. Combined with relatively little growth in domestic consumption, this means the United States remains a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases.
The EIA sees a wide band of possibilities for petroleum and other liquids production depending on its three core scenarios.
This year, the EIA also highlighted the following:
• Energy-related Co2 emissions fall across all AEO2023 cases because of increased electrification, higher equipment efficiencies, and more zero-carbon electricity generation. From 2005 to 2030, the EIA estimates that CO2 emissions will drop between 25% and 38%.
• Renewable generating capacity grows in all regions of the US in all AEO2023 cases, supported by growth in installed battery capacity, while coal-fired generation will drop off sharply by 2030—by 50 percent of current levels.
• Tech advancements and electrification drive projected decreases in demand-side energy intensity, partially offsetting economic and population increases.
The EIA said it shifted focus this year on “patterns and trends” instead of focusing on specific data points due to the uncertainty in the market, including from the IRA.
The EIA’s current reference case as of November 2022, assumes 1.9% annual GDP growth, with Brent reaching $101 per barrel in 2050, with a wide spread of a low estimate of $51 per barrel, and a high of $190 per barrel.
The EIA also published a separate report this year called “Issues in Focus: Inflation Reduction Act,” in which the EIA said it was challenging to model the IRA”s “complex package of incentives”. The EIA did not explicitly include certain IRA provisions in the AEO2023 because, in part, guidance was not yet available about how every provision would be enacted.
