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Beginning of the fourth round of talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA and multilateral attempts to reach a win-win agreement as soon as possible has caught eyes in global oil market, making OPEC Plus ministers closely watch developments in Vienna, Iran Newspaper wrote in a report on Monday.
Analysts see the end of May as a wonderful day for oil markets, as it’s the deadline for Vienna talks that could lead to an agreement or observe talks failing and then leading to an extension or ceasing of negotiations, the newspaper said in the report.
If an agreement is made, Iran’s oil industry would quickly enter a race in the market which is still suffering from the coronavirus pandemic and OPEC Plus production cut agreement, but Iran would spare no effort to revive its position in the global oil market.
Citing an unnamed source in the Oil Ministry, the report added that there is an oversupply in the oil market right now because of a decrease in demand due to the pandemic, but Iran knows how to influence and find its place and it can do it if sanctions are removed.
Iran’s oil production has increased to the highest point since May 2019, but there is still a large gap between current production and Iran’s 4-million bpd capacity. Some sources have said that Iran’s oil facilities are ready to maximize production as soon as an agreement is reached.
Iran exported 2.5 million bpd of oil, including condensate, before the resumption of sanctions and it can return to that point if sanctions are removed as a result of reviving the JCPOA.
The US has reportedly expressed readiness to cancel sanctions related to oil, banking, shipping, insurance, metals, auto and airplane sectors, but there are several points of disagreement regarding the measures the US must take to rejoin the JCPOA as well as what Iran can do to return to full compliance with the deal.
In the meantime, experts say that the talks have reached an acceptable point and there might be good news soon. Fereidoun Majlesi, an international politics expert, told Iran Newspaper that it’s not easy for officials to make positive statements since it could be difficult for them if talks fail. This is a signal that there have been communications at different levels between the two sides of negotiations and there has been a positive assessment of communications, he added.
Recently, there has been a wave of decrease in oil industry investments, according to the report, that shows the world is in a transition period from fossil energies to new types of energy.
Recently during the Petersburgh climate discourse conference, the UN Secretary-General recommended that banks stop investing in fossil energies because they were no more cost-effective.
It is not predictable how the oil industry would be in 2050 and what the prices would be at that time from a broader perspective. Iran should maximize its oil production to be able to take advantage of the soon-to-vanish opportunity.
