Iran Energy News Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Energy Field Specialized Channel
Related Articles
OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024 makes it clear: peak oil demand is not on the horizon. Despite ongoing discussions around transitioning to renewable energy, OPEC forecasts global oil demand to grow significantly, reaching over 120 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050. This projection is driven by strong demand from non-OECD countries, which are expected to see the majority of growth.
“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” OPEC said in its WOO forward.
From 2023 to 2029, global oil demand is expected to increase by 10.1 mb/d, with non-OECD countries leading the way, adding 9.6 mb/d to reach 66.2 mb/d. Meanwhile, demand in OECD countries is projected to stagnate, oscillating around 46 mb/d. Long-term, non-OECD demand will continue to rise, adding 28 mb/d by 2050, while OECD demand is expected to decline. India, Other Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will be key drivers of this growth, with India alone expected to increase its demand by 8 mb/d.
Sectors like petrochemicals, road transportation, and aviation are set to play a critical role in future demand. Petrochemicals alone are projected to account for an additional 4.9 mb/d of oil demand, driven by increasing demand for ethane and naphtha. Road transportation is forecast to grow significantly before stabilizing, while aviation demand will add another 4 mb/d by 2050.
OPEC’s outlook also underscores that oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy mix, accounting for over 50% through 2050. The organization stresses the importance of continued investment in the oil sector, estimating $17.4 trillion will be needed by 2050 to ensure stable supply.
According to OPEC, oil demand will remain robust for decades, with growing demand in non-OECD regions and the continued need for investments in oil infrastructure. Despite the rise of renewables, OPEC’s view is that oil will continue to play a critical role in meeting the world’s energy needs for the foreseeable future.
