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Tankers and container ships that have been avoiding the Red Sea route are set to burn additional 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fuel oil this year due to the longer alternative route via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, commodity trading giant Trafigura has estimated.
Since the end of 2023, many ship owners and vessel charterers have opted to use the longer route via Africa to avoid passing through the Red Sea, where the Iran-aligned Houthis have targeted Western and Israeli-flagged or owned vessels.
Tensions in the region have been high since early this year, when the Houthis intensified attacks on commercial vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait en route to and from the Red Sea, forcing many ship owners and operators to suspend the Suez Canal/Red Sea route for transporting goods from Europe to Asia and vice versa.
Trafigura, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, has estimated that an extra 200,000 bpd of fuel oil will be consumed by oil tankers alone this year as they are diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. This increased fuel consumption would be equal to a 4.5% increase in annual emissions from oil tankers alone, according to the commodity trading house.
When container ships and other vessels avoiding the Red Sea route are added to estimates, the shipping industry is set to boost its fuel oil consumption by 500,000 bpd this year due to the traffic disruption in the Middle Eastern region alone, Trafigura noted.
The much longer voyages lead to “a dramatic increase in emissions,” the oil trading group warned. Near-term measures to mitigate the shipping sector’s emissions include biofuels, energy efficiency, and slow steaming, among others, but “these near-term measures are not a substitute for the transition to low-emissions shipping fuels,” Trafigura said.
In the long term, the oil trader believes that “low-emission ammonia and methanol will eventually become the primary shipping fuels of the future.”
