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New G7 and European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports will have a muted impact on flows and global prices according to analysts polled by Reuters, as Russia is set to largely succeed in rerouting its trade eastward.
The market is set to be deprived of a maximum of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in the short term once the measures take effect on December 5, and possibly none at all – a range not seen moving prices much upward.
The survey of 42 economists and analysts provides one of the most comprehensive perspectives yet of how the industry views the ambitious plan to deprive Moscow of revenue, revealing uncertainty on its impact but little deep concern.
“Russian exports will find other buyers in Asia in the long term. But in the short term the sanctions could result in some 1.5 to 2 million bpd that will be taken off the market,” said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at German bank LBBW.
