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Russia is planning to scale back oil exports from its sea ports next month by between 100,000 and 200,000 barrels per day compared to December levels, according to industry sources familiar with Russia’s export plans.
The reason for the scaleback, the anonymous sources told Reuters, is increased throughput at its own refineries.
Kpler pegged Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports at 3.5 million bpd so far in December. Kpler has also predicted that Russia’s oil exports will fall in January as its domestic refining picks up steam, with its offline refining capacity for December reaching 2.098 million metric tons. It also is in “The export schedule for the first quarter of 2024 is lower than for October-December,” one of the sources shared with Reuters.
The sources suggest that the declines will mainly be seen in Russia’s western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorosslick.
Russia schedules its exports using a three-month schedule in the month prior, giving oil companies time to plan oil flows through the Transneft system.
Russia said yesterday that its crude oil exports will be 7% higher this year compared to 2021 levels, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 2023 exports from Russia are expected to be 250 million tons, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov told Interfax.
So far, Russia has managed to continue exporting crude oil at high levels despite sanctions and price caps through its vast shadow fleet of tankers.
In November, the country voluntarily promised to increase export cuts as part of its agreement with the OPEC+ group to 500,000 barrels per day total—300,000 bpd of which would be crude oil, and 200,000 bpd of which will be oil products.
