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Russia may reach a record-high level of crude and condensate production in summer 2022, with output expected to reach its peak in 2023, Norway’s Rystad Energy consulting company said in a statement on Friday.
“The OPEC+ coalition’s recent agreement to steadily raise oil production is paving the way for Russia to slowly shrug off Covid-19 curtailments. The country is on track to set a new monthly crude and condensate output record of 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) already in July 2022, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals. Russia’s oil machine will then accelerate further to a peak of almost 12.2 million bpd in mid-2023,” the company said in a statement.
Russia’s current monthly oil and condensate production record of 11.5 million bpd was set in December 2018. Rystad Energy’s projections point to 2023 as a peak year also at an annual production level, expected at 12.16 million bpd.
Therefore, Russia’s annual crude and condensate production in 2023 will stand at about 600 million tonnes. The previous annual record of 568 million tonnes was set in 2019.
The country’s short-and medium-term production growth will be driven by Rosneft and Gazpromneft’s greenfield projects, Rystad Energy said.
According to the company, Russian operators will find it difficult and expensive to bring back online wells that were shut to comply with OPEC+ output cuts.
Members of the OPEC+ alliance, bringing together OPEC members and 13 non-member states, have been boosting their oil output since May. They agreed to increase oil production by 0.4 million bpd per month in a bid to restore oil output, reduced in 2020, to its previous levels by September 2022.
