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European bodies recently criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to introduce tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports entering the country. Meanwhile, experts at home and abroad continue to evaluate how the trade dispute will affect steel prices and aluminum prices.
The European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, recently vowed that it would respond swiftly to Trump’s February 10 order to impose a 25% import tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum, regardless of the point of origin. If you’re worried about changing steel prices and aluminum prices as a result of tariffs, MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter covers weekly metal price updates with weekly market insights and macroeconomics news.
“Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered—they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures,” EC President Ursula von der Leyen said in a February 11 statement.
“The EU will act to safeguard its economic interests. We will protect our workers, businesses and consumers,” von der Leyen added. The statement did not indicate what reciprocal actions the EC would undertake. The tariffs are due to take effect from March 12 and presently do not allow for exemptions on points of origin. Trump initially announced plans to introduce the tariffs on February 9 while on board Air Force One.
Eurofer Head Says Tariffs Come at Inopportune Time for Europe
Brussels-based European Steel Association, commonly known as Eurofer, also criticized the tariffs. A February 11 statement quoted the organization’s president, Dr. Henrik Adam, as saying, “If all product exemptions and tariff rate quotas are now removed, the EU could lose up to 3.7 million metric tons of steel exports to the United States.”
He added that “The U.S. is the second biggest export market for EU steel producers, representing 16% of the total EU steel exports in 2024. Losing a significant part of these exports cannot be compensated by EU exports to other markets,”
A February 10 report by Politico stated that around 3.8 million metric tons of steel and aluminum entered the United States from the bloc in 2023, making the EU the country’s third-largest importer. The cited data came from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, which has its headquarters in New York.
On February 6, Eurofer representatives warned that growing economic uncertainty within Europe will continue to weigh on the steel market for the rest of 2025 and will likely stretch into 2026. At the time, the organization stated that the expected recovery in apparent steel consumption for 2025 had been downgraded to 2.2% from 3.8%, whilst end-user sectors’ recession had fallen to 0.9% from 1.6%.
No Concessions for Ukraine Amid Ongoing War
In December 2021, the EU finalized an agreement with the U.S. Government on tariff rate quotas regarding steel imports from the bloc. The deal exempted them from the 25% tariffs on steel imports introduced by the first Trump administration (2017-2021) in 2018.
The new tariffs also cancel any concession towards Ukraine, which has used its rolling works in Bulgaria and Italy to roll long steels and flat steels using semi-finished Ukrainian material.
A Presidential Proclamation issued by the White House stated that “Rather than supporting the Ukrainian steel industry and alleviating the economic harm caused by the ongoing conflict, the benefits of this temporary exemption have accrued primarily to producers in EU member countries, which have significantly increased duty-free exports to the U.S. market of steel articles processed from Ukrainian semi-finished steel.”
It continued to say that “Since 2021, imports from Ukraine have remained steady at 0.5% of total U.S. imports, while imports from the European Union have increased 11.2% to 14.8%. This has facilitated evasion of both the Section 232 measures and of anti-dumping duties that would be paid if the finished products were imported directly from Ukraine.”
Uncertainty Plaguing Europe Regarding Tariffs
One trader told MetalMiner that the planned tariffs are creating uncertainty in the European steel market, at least for now. For example, mills in Europe and Asia have started to back away from doing any transactions to the United States. This is not only due to fear of the upcoming tariffs, but also of retrograde tariffs. “You cannot take measures against that. These are dangerous times,” the trader said.
Meanwhile, prices for hot rolled coil on the domestic market have started to rise with the expectation that mills will cut back production to hedge against increased supply. The trader stated that mills were “kind of reluctant” to push up their production due to fears of financial impacts.
The effect on steel prices is starting to show. Offers for the flat rolled product currently stand at €650 ($650) per metric ton EXW for May delivery, up from the €630-635 ($660-665) seen in late January. Benchmark 62% FE iron ore prices also reached a high of $106.77 per metric ton CFR Qingdao on February 13.
According to data from the website Trading Economics, this represents an increase of 8.15% from the $98.72 recorded on January 13. That price is also up 16.59% from $91.57 reported on September 18.
Some Insiders Say Panic About Steel Prices Overblown
One European market participant took a wait-and-see approach with regard to the new tariffs. He pointed to the U.S. imposing 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1. These were set to come into force on February 4, but Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause as the two neighboring states undertook steps to appease U.S. concerns about border security and narcotics trafficking.
“Everybody’s worrying about the after-effects. Let’s first see if it materializes before panicking,” the market participant said about the planned tariffs.
Other sources note that even if the tariffs do come into effect, the United States will likely need to import steel, as mills in the country do not have the capacity to cope with demand. Data from the World Steel Association stated that the United States poured about 81.4 million metric tons of crude steel in 2023 against an apparent consumption of about 93 million metric tons.
Sources also told MetalMiner that many end users in the country are continuing to seek steel from abroad, including in Europe. The primary reason is that they want higher quality materials that may not be available from domestic producers. This, more than anything, has the potential to impact steel prices.
