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Wind and solar power generation will continue surging to the point of accounting for more than one-third of global electricity by 2030, up from 12% now, according to a new analysis by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a nonprofit organization focused on the energy transition.
The expected further surge in wind and solar puts the global power system on track for the IEA’s ambitious net-zero pathway, RMI said in the research done in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund.
Based on the forecasts, the surge in renewables would see solar and wind generate 12,000-14,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. This would be 3 to 4 times higher compared with 2022 levels, and would also exceed recent calls ahead of the COP28 climate summit for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030, RMI said.
The cost declines wind and solar have achieved over the past 10 years are expected to continue with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030. RMI’s analysis forecasts that solar prices will roughly halve again by 2030, falling to as low as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for solar, compared to over $40 per MWh now.
Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that the energy crisis in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, and the continued strong expansion of green energy installations in China are all expected to contribute to the biggest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity additions this year.
Globally, new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts (GW) this year, up by 107 GW year-on-year and the largest increase in new capacity ever seen, the IEA said in its report. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are set to account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power capacity this year.
