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The global demand for oil will eventually start to decline in the long-term perspective under any scenario of de-carbonization of national economies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2021, obtained by TASS.
The report offers three basic scenarios for the global energy sector, with various scopes of climate-related reforms. The moderate Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) envisages that all governments stick to conservative strategies and not all climate goals are achieved by 2050. It projects that global demand for oil would peak at 104 million barrels per day in 2030s and would start to gradually decline by 2050.
The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) stipulates that all de-carbonization goals are eventually met, while oil demand peaks at only 97 million barrels per day and starts its gradual decline after 2025, until it reaches 77 million barrels per day by 2050. The Net Zero Emissions (NZE) envisages the global oil consumption to decline to 72 million barrels per day by as early as 2030, reaching 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
The latest scenario also envisages that by 2030, 60% of all cars sold worldwide are powered by electricity, and new cars with combustion engines are no longer sold after 2035. At the same time, the demand for oil in the petrochemical industry will grow, with 55% of all oil extracted worldwide used in petrochemical production by 2050, the IEA said.
Oil prices forecast
According to IEA World Energy Outlook 2021, the global policy of zero emissions may cause oil prices to fall to $36 per barrel by 2030 and to $24 per barrel by 2050.
The report offers three basic scenarios for the global energy sector, with various scopes of climate-related reforms. The harshest of them, the Net Zero Emissions (NZE), expects global prices to reach $24 per barrel by 2050. Under this scenario, the world will no longer need new oil and gas deposits.
However, two other possible scenarios project the current price corridor to remain at the same level or even to grow by 2050. For example, in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which stipulates that all de-carbonization goals are eventually met, the average oil price is estimated at $67 per barrel by 2030 and at $64 per barrel by 2050. The moderate Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which envisages that all governments stick to conservative strategies and not all climate goals are achieved by 2050, forecasts the oil price to range between approximately $60 and $90 per barrel.
Under the toughest economic de-carbonization scenarios, Russia and OPEC countries are projected to account for at least 60% of the global oil output, as compared to the current 40%, the report says.
