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There are great humanitarian implications for any war, but the environmental consequences of conflict can often be overlooked. Conflicts, both big and small, have an extremely detrimental effect on the environment due to the use of munition. More than 5 percent of global emissions are caused by conflict or militaries, although the true scale of the situation remains unknown. At a time when governments worldwide are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in favour of a green transition, to help tackle climate change, the impact of war on the environment is worsening. Recent studies suggest that the GHG emissions linked to conflict are little known. To better understand the impact of conflict on the decarbonisation aims outlined in the Paris Agreement, researchers have increasingly sought to draw a clearer picture of the emissions being released in relation to military operations.
The first major attempt to understand the emissions impact of conflict was seen following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. New methodologies were established by researchers trying to map the emissions released in direct relation to the conflict. Calculations and a third version of the methodology from the New Initiative on GHG Accounting of War – an association of climate experts – are expected to be published at the COP28 climate summit in November. Researchers currently believe that the emissions released from the Russia-Ukraine war could equate to the annual emissions of a small country, such as Belgium. It is important to note that this is just one conflict, and similarly high levels of emissions may be being produced from other wars around the globe.
While the climate impact of war cannot supersede the humanitarian costs, it is important to understand just how much GHG emissions are being produced by war to help achieve international climate pledges. Military activities are often viewed as exempt from emissions restrictions, as they are necessary for national security. Few countries report their military-produced emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), meaning there is a lack of vital information to understand the environmental impact of these emissions. At present, researchers suggest that militaries worldwide could be responsible for around 5.5 percent of global GHG emissions.
When measuring conflict emissions, certain considerations are taken over military activity, including land, marine and aviation fuels, marine and aviation fuels, extending to urban and landscape fires, and fires from damaged energy infrastructure to estimate emissions. Other things to consider include the change in energy production and demand on the ground, such as the increased use of diesel generators. Certain emissions levels may drop during times of war, particularly those linked to industry and economic activities that are no longer taking place due to conflict. However, it is also important to understand the potential carbon cost of reconstruction following the end of a conflict, which could drive up emissions significantly. In the case of Ukraine, the government of Ukraine and the World Bank aim to put a value on the emissions produced during the war for the purpose of reparations in a first-of-a-kind approach to reconstruction.
Researchers are increasingly looking into the environmental impact of other conflicts following the Russia-Ukraine case. Recent studies suggest that during the first two months of the Israeli invasion of Gaza in Palestine, the carbon footprint was thought to be higher than that of 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. Approximately 99 percent of the 281,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide released in this period came from Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis.
Around half of the emissions measured in the analysis came from U.S. cargo planes flying military supplies to Israel. Meanwhile, the rockets fired by Hamas into Israel during the same period generated about 713 tonnes of CO2, according to the paper. The analysis focuses on a specific range of activities associated with the conflict – such as the making and exploding of bombs, artillery and rockets – suggesting that the emissions estimate is likely much lower than the reality. It also does not consider the methane produced from these activities, prompting the need for greater analysis to fully understand the environmental impact of the war.
Benjamin Neimark, the co-author of the paper, stated, “This study is only a snapshot of the larger military bootprint of war … a partial picture of the massive carbon emissions and wider toxic pollutants that will remain long after the fighting is over.” Neimark added, “The military’s environmental exceptionalism allows them to pollute with impunity, as if the carbon emissions spitting from their tanks and fighter jets don’t count. This has to stop, to tackle the climate crisis we need accountability.”
While there are often greater concerns associated with conflict, such as humanitarian suffering, at a time when governments worldwide are attempting to reduce GHG emissions to tackle climate change, it is important to understand the environmental implications of war. While the International Energy Agency and other bodies measure the current climate pledges against the global energy landscape, the rising emissions associated with conflict must not be overlooked. Greater transparency and reporting about military emissions could contribute to international analyses of carbon emissions and provide a better decarbonisation forecast for the coming years.
