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Russian crude oil exports by sea continue to rise as heavy domestic refinery maintenance leaves more crude available for export.
Russia exported on average 3.47 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
The four-week average to October 20 was the highest export level for Russia since the end of June, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
At the same time, refining rates at Russian crude processing facilities are on track to decline to their lowest level for more than two years, since May 2022, per Bloomberg’s estimates.
The rise in Russian crude shipments was attributed to a surge in crude volumes heading to Asia, the region which now takes nearly all, 95%, of Russia’s crude. Shipments to Asia surged to the highest levels in over five months, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.
Due to the increase in export volumes, the gross value of Russia’s observed crude shipments increased to $1.59 billion per week in the four weeks to October 20, up from $1.52 billion a week in the previous four-week period. This was the highest average weekly gross value since the middle of August.
Russia has raised the refining capacity volumes it expects to be idle this month by 67% compared to an earlier plan, due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, Reuters estimates showed earlier this month.
In October, Russia expects to have 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity offline, per Reuters’s calculations based on figures provided by industry sources. While that’s lower than the idle capacity in September, at 4.5 million tons, it is still higher than previously planned.
Previously postponed maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in southwestern Russia and maintenance at a unit of Lukoil’s NORSI refinery have now increased the capacity that would be offline in October, thus leaving more crude for exports.
