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Europe needs to drastically slash natural gas consumption in the next few months to prepare for what is likely to be “a long, hard winter,” the head of the International Energy Agency said.
While the European Union has made some progress diversifying away from key supplier Russia, any shipments from the country remain highly uncertain, with a complete cut-off not ruled out, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a commentary outlining steps Europe must take to avoid a major gas crunch this winter.
Birol’s warning comes as a severe heat wave exacerbates Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades, putting undue demand on gas-fired generation to keep homes and businesses cool. Electricity supplies are short as warm air reduces wind power, rising water temperatures hamper nuclear plant output and falling river levels interrupt coal supplies to power stations.
Relying on alternative gas suppliers won’t be enough. Even if Norway and Azerbaijan ship all they can, deliveries from North Africa are close to last year’s levels and liquefied natural gas imports are already at record levels, Birol said. An extra 12 billion cubic meters needs to be saved in the next three months, or the equivalent of about 130 LNG tankers, according to the IEA.
“The first immediate step towards filling European gas storage to adequate levels before winter is to reduce Europe’s current gas consumption, and to put the saved gas into storage. Some of this is happening already because of sky-high gas prices, but more is required,” he said. “Significant additional reductions are needed to prepare Europe for a tough winter ahead.”
Even if Europe manages to fill its storage sites to 90% full, there is still a “heightened risk of supply disruptions if there is a complete Russian cut-off,” Birol said. Risks are even higher if Russian flows stop before the region has managed to secure that storage threshold, he said.
The EU on Wednesday is planning a set of urgent actions across the entire economy — including reductions to heating and cooling use and some market-based measures — to mitigate the impact of a possible gas supply cut-off by Russia.
