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Libya’s crude oil exports are projected to fall by at least 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, despite a modest recovery in production. Analysts at FGE have reported that Libya’s crude production has risen by around 200,000 bpd since the beginning of the month, now standing between 650,000 and 700,000 bpd. However, exports from western Libya are expected to remain minimal due to force majeure at the country’s two major oil fields: El Sharara, which produces 270,000 bpd, and the 70,000 bpd El Feel field.
FGE sees total Libyan crude production in the month of September between 750,000 bpd and 800,000 bpd.
Libyan ports have seen an uptick in crude loadings, with exports expected to increase to 370,000 bpd this week and 490,000 bpd next week. Still, the overall outlook for the OPEC member’s near-term exports is uncertain. August exports were sustained at over 1 million bpd, in part thanks to stored crude. With much of this stored oil now depleted, FGE expects Libya’s September exports to decline sharply. Total shipments in September will average below 700,000 bpd, the forecast shows—300,000 fewer barrels per day than the previous month, assuming the force majeure stays in place.
This is a combination of rising exports in east Libya and declining western port exports due to force majeure at the Sharara and El Feel oilfields, which feel the Zawia port and the Mellitah terminal, respectively.
A nationwide shutdown of oil fields was triggered on August 26 by Libya’s eastern regime following the dismissal of the Central Bank head, Sadiq al-Kabir, by the western government. While an agreement was reached on September 3 to appoint a new central bank head within 30 days, tensions remain high, and many observers are concerned that the deal may not hold. The leader of the eastern House of Representatives has stated that the oil blockade will continue until al-Kabir is reinstated.
This uncertainty leaves Libya’s oil sector in a precarious position, with analysts wary that the ongoing political standoff could prevent a full recovery in crude exports for the foreseeable future.
