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The global economy has been relatively resilient in recent months, which has led OPEC to continue to anticipate robust oil demand growth this year and next, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday.
“For 2024, oil demand growth is at 2.2 mb/d, with total global demand anticipated to average 104.5 mb/d,” Al Ghais told the Special Session of the 141st Meeting of OPEC’s Economic Commission Board.
Next year, the global oil demand growth forecast shows a further robust expansion of 1.8 million barrels per day year-over-year, averaging 106.3 million bpd, OPEC’s secretary general added.
The head of the organization – which is currently restricting supply to the market in the OPEC+ deal coordinated with several non-OPEC producers led by Russia – echoed the projections of OPEC in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
OPEC continues to strike an optimistic view of global oil demand despite market concerns about wobbling demand and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates that could hurt oil consumption.
Earlier this month, OPEC said in its monthly report that a resilient global economy early this year has additional upside potential in the second half with the possible easing of monetary policies.
OPEC estimates that global oil demand rose by 2.4 million bpd in the first quarter of 2024. For the full year, total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.5 million bpd, driven by “strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.”
Regarding the world economy, OPEC said “Despite certain downside risks, the continued momentum observed since the start of the year could create additional upside potential for global economic growth in 2024 and beyond.”
All eyes are now on OPEC and OPEC+ as they meet this coming weekend to decide how to proceed with the current production cuts in the second half of the year. With oil’s recent slide, most analysts expect OPEC+ to keep the cuts as-is for the rest of the year.
