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Under the pessimistic scenario Ukraine may face gas import problems during this heating season and will have to siphon off Russian gas from the transit pipeline, the former head of the Naftogaz company, Andrey Kobolev, has said.
“Ukraine is unable to do without considerable amounts imported gas in the first quarter of 2022 to cope with the peak pressures on its energy system during the low temperature season,” Kobolev said in an article published on the website Zerkalo Nedeli (Mirror of the Week) on Monday. According to his forecast under the optimistic scenario the government will have to find and estimated $2 billion to $6 billion to support the largest public company.
The pessimistic scenario will inevitably result in siphoning off part of gas from the transit pipelines.
Russia’s reaction to the theft of gas is easy to predict, Kobolev warns. Transit through Ukraine may be suspended and the transit contract signed in December 2019 severed. Moreover, there will follow the launch of Nord Stream 2 and Gazprom’s refusal to use the Ukrainian route, with the Western partners’ tacit consent.
At the moment Ukraine’s underground gas storages are 43.7% full, while 16.452 billion cubic meters remains vacant.
Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller on December 29, 2021 said that Ukraine’s underground gas reserves on December 24 were at a record-low. He recalled that Russia last year transited through Ukraine as much gas as it was expected to under the effective contract.
